Publications


2024
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Dorrington, J.; Wenta, M.; Grazzini, F.; Magnusson, L.; Vitart, F.; Grams, C. M.
2024. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24 (9), 2995 – 3012. doi:10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024
Impact of Saharan dust outbreaks on short‐range weather forecast errors in Europe
Hermes, K.; Quinting, J.; Grams, C. M.; Hoose, C.; Hoshyaripour, G. A.
2024. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150 (760), 1704–1723. doi:10.1002/qj.4666
Relevant publications before group start

2018

Portmann R., B. Crezee, J. Quinting, H. Wernli, 2018: The complex life cycles of two long‐lived potential vorticity cut‐offs over Europe. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 701–719, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3239

Quinting, J.F., T. Parker, and M.J. Reeder, 2018: Two Synoptic Routes to Subtropical Heat Waves as Illustrated in the Brisbane Region of Australia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079261

Schäfler, A., and Coauthors, 2018: The North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, 1607–1637, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0003.1.

2017

Beerli, R., H. Wernli, and C. M. Grams, 2017: Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month-ahead wind electricity generation in Europe? Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 3025–3036, doi:10.1002/qj.3158.

Binder, H., M. Boettcher, C. M. Grams, H. Joos, S. Pfahl, and H. Wernli, 2017: Exceptional Air Mass Transport and Dynamical Drivers of an Extreme Wintertime Arctic Warm Event. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2017GL075841, doi:10.1002/2017GL075841.

Büeler, D., and S. Pfahl, 2017: Potential Vorticity Diagnostics to Quantify Effects of Latent Heating in Extratropical Cyclones. Part I: Methodology. J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 3567–3590, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-17-0041.1.

Grams, C. M., R. Beerli, S. Pfenninger, I. Staffell, and H. Wernli, 2017: Balancing Europe/’s wind-power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes. Nature Climate Change, 7, 557–562, doi:10.1038/nclimate3338.

Madonna, E., C. Li, C. M. Grams, and T. Woollings, 2017: The link between eddy-driven jet variability and weather regimes in the North Atlantic-European sector. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc, 143, 2960–2972, doi:10.1002/qj.3155.

Quinting, J.F. and M.J. Reeder, 2017: Southeastern Australian Heat Waves from a Trajectory Viewpoint. External Link Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 4109–4125, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0165.1

Schneidereit, A., and Coauthors, 2017: Enhanced Tropospheric Wave Forcing of Two Anticyclones in the Prephase of the January 2009 Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event. Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 1797–1815, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0242.1.

2016

Grams, C. M., and H. M. Archambault, 2016: The key role of diabatic outflow in amplifying the midlatitude flow: a representative case study of weather systems surrounding western North Pacific extratropical transition. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 3847–3869, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0419.1.

Quinting, J. F., and S. C. Jones, 2016: On the Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Rossby Wave Packets: A Climatological Perspective. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 2021–2048, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00298.1.

2015

Madonna, E., M. Boettcher, C. M. Grams, H. Joos, O. Martius, and H. Wernli, 2015: Verification of North Atlantic warm conveyor belt outflowsin ECMWF forecasts. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1333–1344, doi:10.1002/qj.2442.

Pfahl, S., C. Schwierz, M. Croci-Maspoli, C. M. Grams, and H. Wernli, 2015: Importance of latent heat release in ascending air streams for atmospheric blocking. Nature Geosci, 8, 610–614, doi:10.1038/ngeo2487.

Piaget, N., P. Froidevaux, P. Giannakaki, F. Gierth, O. Martius, M. Riemer, G. Wolf, and C. M. Grams, 2015: Dynamics of a local Alpine flooding event in October 2011: moisture source and large-scale circulation. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1922–1937, doi:10.1002/qj.2496.

Before 2015

Grams, C. M., H. Binder, S. Pfahl, N. Piaget, and H. Wernli, 2014: Atmospheric processes triggering the central European floods in June 2013. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1691–1702, doi:10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014.

Grams, C. M., and Coauthors, 2011: The key role of diabatic processes in modifying the upper-tropospheric wave guide: a North Atlantic case-study. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 2174–2193, doi:10.1002/qj.891.