Description

THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme aims to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of one day to two week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of society, the economy and the environment. Our contribution to THORPEX is concerned with the impact of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) on the predictability of the midlatitude weather, especially downstream of the ET event itself. Through idealised modelling, analysis of operational numerical weather prediction model output and experiments with the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System we aim to quantify the reduction in predictability associated with ET and highlight areas in which models must be improved.

Further contributions are made to THORPEX by Sarah Jones through membership of the Working Group on Predictability and Dynamical Processes (leading interest groups on „The impact of ET on downstream midlatitude predictability“ and „AMMA and aspects of tropical-extratropical interactions“), as Rapporteur for WMO Regional Area VI (Europe) and through membership of the core group of AMMA International Working Group 5 on High Impact Weather Prediction and Predictability that seeks to promote joint AMMA-THORPEX activities.