The focus of DESERVE is on answering complex scientific questions by close interdisciplinary and international cooperation. This is considered the key to addressing the research challenges of environmental risks, water availability, and climate change.

The challenges are reflected by several interdisciplinary work packages as well as closely interlinked disciplinary work packages, all of which involve at least two partners of different nationality and fields of research. A special focus is on the promotion of interdisciplinary education of young scientists.

The following questions are addressed:

• Where are the future sinkhole areas?
• Which collapse processes and mechanics lead to sinkhole development?
• How do hydro-climatic fluctuations influence sinkhole development and seismicity?
• What is the Dead Sea water budget?
• How do past, present, and future climate change modify the Dead Sea water budget?
• How do earthquakes evolve in the Dead Sea region?
• How high is the seismic risk in the Dead Sea region?
• How do spatio-temporal soil moisture patterns trigger flash flood generation?
• How do aerosols modify clouds and precipitation?
• How do different wind systems influence the development and characteristics of the Dead Sea haze layer?

By addressing these research topics, DESERVE will establish several tools, databases, and monitoring networks:

• Sinkhole hazard map
• Toolbox of methods and techniques to detect and characterize early-stage sinkhole development
• Seismic/geodynamic observations to monitor seismicity and stress, radon exhalation in the vicinity of faults, and magneto-tellurics to monitor magnetic field variations
• GPS measurements to detect surface deformation
• Seismic risk assessment
• Hydrological measurements of rainfall and discharge
• Flash flood early warning system
• Meteorological systems to monitor air temperature, humidity, solar radiation, haze characteristics, and wind systems

Sinkholes, Their Formation, and Estimation of Vulnerable Areas

Sinkholes, a common geomorphological phenomenon in the Dead Sea area, are localized features of surface subsidence. This includes open collapse structures forming suddenly during collapse events. The largest collapse sinkholes are about 30 m in diameter and up to 15 m deep. Sinkholes may threaten vital infrastructure, such as roads, buildings, pipelines, and dams. The frequency of occurrence of sinkhole collapses increased strongly during the last two decades and seems to closely correlate with the Dead Sea drawdown.

Sinkhole-affected regions are characterized by a concealed fault system and subsoil coastal salt layers, which are in contact with groundwater or unsaturated brine. This suggests that groundwater, under-saturated with respect to the abundant easily soluble minerals, uses faults as conduits to percolate to the salt layers. The under-saturated water dissolves and flushes the salt layers, leading to a collapse of the underground substrate structure and, thus, to the development of sinkholes.

However, the stability of the soil structure as well as the locations of the faults serving as preferential flow paths and future sinkhole areas are unknown.

In WP1, a combination of various monitoring methods, such as shear-wave reflection seismics, ground-penetrating radar, InSAR, and aerial photography, will be used to identify and characterize areas of high sinkhole potential. Sinkhole and subrosion models representing geophysical, geological, as well as hydrological processes will contribute to the process understanding of sinkhole formation, in particular to identifying the stability of the soil structure, preferential flow paths, and salt dissolution.

Thus, the identification of sinkhole-prone areas and the enhanced process understanding of sinkhole formation will help minimize the sinkhole hazard in the planning of future infrastructure facilities. In the end, scientific recommendations will be made to reduce the sinkhole hazard in the Dead Sea area.

Contact: Prof. Dr. Torsten Dahm
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, GFZ
Earthquake Risk and Early Warning
Telegrafenberg
14473 Potsdam
Germany
torsten dahm ∂does-not-exist.gfz-potsdam de

Assessing the Dead Sea Water Budget Components

The extensive exploitation of ground and surface water has led to a lowering of the groundwater table and a dramatic decline of the Dead Sea level. Climate change may even aggravate ongoing water shortage.

The quantification of the Dead Sea water budget components at different space-time scales is therefore essential for sustainable water resources management. The individual water budget components, like the inflow of the Jordan River, flash flood events, groundwater flow, ascending brines, industrial water use, and evaporative loss, will be addressed in several WPs:

Hydrological and meteorological observations (WP3), surface and groundwater flow (WP6), as well as evaporation (WP7).

WP2 will build up on these outcomes to provide a holistic and reliable water budget estimation of the Dead Sea Basin.

Once the past and present changes of the Dead Sea water budget as well as the agents of change are known, the results can be applied to future scenarios of water availability and provide the basis for present and future sustainable water resources management.

Contact: Prof. Dr. Ralf Merz
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, UFZ
Department of Catchment Hydrology
Theodor-Lieser-Straße 4
06120 Halle/Saale
Germany
ralf merz ∂does-not-exist.ufz de

Monitoring of the Dead Sea Region by Multi-parameter Stations

In the Dead Sea area, processes in climate, water availability, and tectonics change drastically and rapidly. For a sound process understanding, risk estimation, and prognosis, a profound database of environmental variables is crucial.

Therefore, DESERVE will establish and operate a trans-boundary high-quality monitoring network of seismic, geodynamic, hydrological, and meteorological stations in the Dead Sea region.

The seismic/geodynamic observations will include the monitoring of seismicity and stress, radon exhalation in the vicinity of faults, magneto-tellurics to monitor magnetic field variations, and GPS measurements to detect surface deformation.

Hydrological measurements of rainfall and discharge as well as meteorological systems to monitor air temperature, humidity, solar radiation, haze characteristics, and wind systems will be established.

These observations will be combined with surface observations from satellite-based systems.

All data will be real time and open to the public.

For the first time, temporally and spatially coincident high-quality measurements of climate, water, and solid earth will be available. The main task of WP3 is the spatio-temporal combination of the monitored variables to shed light on the coupling and interaction of climatic, hydrological, and tectonic processes. The integrated process understanding can serve as the basis for a long-term perspective on water availability, climate change, and environmental risks in the Dead Sea region.

Insights: Monitoring in Geo- / Hydro- / Atmospheres

Poster: Seismological and meteorological measurements at the Dead Sea to investigate the impact of wind on seismic signals

Promotion of Interdisciplinary Education of Young Scientists

In addition to research into the inherently coupled natural processes of climate, water availability, and tectonics, education of young researchers addresses the needs of developing thinking beyond the disciplinary borders.

DESERVE has build up an interdisciplinary network of young scientists on the bachelor, master, and PhD levels. A number of actions, involving the Graduate Schools GRACE and Porter, are taken to promote young scientists:

• A Visiting Young Scientist Programme  enables researchers from all countries to stay at a hosting lab of a DESERVE partner for periods of a few weeks up to a few months.
• Common Interdisciplinary Winter Schools and Field Campaigns bring together young scientists, well-established senior scientists, engineers, and technicians from all DESERVE partners to work across classical disciplinary boundaries.
• For each student a Supervision Committee is established, consisting of members of all disciplines to ensure interdisciplinary collaboration.
• Student Scholarships as well as travel support to present own research results at conferences are given to ambitious students.

Thus, this promotion of interdisciplinary education of young scientists forms the basis for coping with the challenges addressed in DESERVE: Environmental risks, water availability, and climate change.

Earthquake Hazard, and Paleo-reconstructions

Seismology

In 1995, the magnitude 7.3 earthquake in the Gulf of Aqaba reminded of previous strong devastating earthquakes in the Dead Sea fault area. One of the last moderate earthquakes was the magnitude 6.2 event in 1927 near Jericho which caused over 200 casualties.

For seismic risk mitigation and management, a modern seismic risk assessment of certain earthquake scenarios is required. This is currently lacking in the Dead Sea region.

DESERVE will provide a probabilistic seismic risk assessment for characteristic cities in the Dead Sea region which may be the basis for a regional seismic risk assessment.

In the seismic risk assessment, the seismic vulnerability will be estimated. Apart from socio-economic data, expert knowledge and legacy information, as well as remotely sensed and ground-based images providing building stock information will be incorporated. During the past 50 years, the rapid growth of many towns in the area, coupled with the increasing concentration of population and economic assets, led to an increase in the seismic vulnerability of the region.

On the other hand, the seismic hazard will be estimated. This will be done by integrating various databases from the region with new seismic monitoring techniques. In particular, the physical understanding of the evolution of strain, stress, and seismicity can serve as the basis for future hazard assessment.

In order to foster the spread of project findings among the scientific community of the Dead Sea region, the results of the seismic risk assessment will be made available in the form of leading-edge GIS techniques and spatial database capabilities in an open-source, freely distributable environment.
 

Paleo-reconstruction of the Dead Sea History

The climate in the Dead Sea region has changed dramatically during the past millennia. The reasons and possible environmental as well as anthropogenic impacts are poorly understood. The long-term reconstruction of extreme environmental events such as earthquakes, floods, and droughts is possible due to core samples of lake sediments. Recently, the most continuous of all cores was collected at the middle of the lake in the framework of the Integrated Continental Drilling Program (ICDP). The core can serve as an archive of more than 100 millennia of Dead Sea history.

DESERVE will identify earthquakes, floods, and droughts in the sedimentary layers of the core. The identified events will be dated by isotope analysis, and an approach to estimating event magnitudes will be developed. The long-term archive of environmental events may serve as a reference time line for seismology, climate research, and flood hydrology. To reinforce the findings on event timing and magnitude, the respective data will be compared against archaeological findings, historical archives, and recent measurement data. Furthermore, such a record will shed light on the mutual couplings between climatic forcing, hydrological anomalies, and large earthquakes as aspired in WP3.

Additionally, the work package will study how the human species has been affected and has influenced the environmental changes recorded in the ICDP core. Comparing the extended hydro-climatic archive with the archaeological record of population and settlement dynamics might indicate recurring patterns and inspire close collaboration with pre-historians.

Besides earthquakes, floods, and droughts, the pre-historic occurrences of sinkhole formation (WP1) will be addressed. Preliminary inspection of outcrop geology suggests that such events had occurred at least twice, respectively seventy and four millennia ago. Biblical description of humans swallowed by sinkholes might have been inspired by such natural calamities.

Contact: Prof. Dr. Amotz Agnon
Hebrew University Jerusalem
The Institute of Earth Sciences (IES)
Jerusalem 91904
Israel
amotz ∂does-not-exist.cc huji ac il

Water Availability in a (Semi-)Arid Region with Water Scarcity

Surface Water and Groundwater – Genesis and Controlling of Flash Floods

Besides the Jordan River, perennial rivers are rarely found in the Dead Sea Basin. Instead, flash floods are a common phenomenon in arid regions like the Dead Sea Basin and contribute an important share to the water budget (WP2). Flash floods are observed in wadis after heavy rainfall events and are characterized by a sudden runoff increase of high magnitude. They often cause damage to infrastructure and even losses of lives.

As storms are the driving factor for flash flood generation, spatial and temporal high-resolution data of the meteorological conditions (WP7) are required for runoff calculation. Besides the meteorological conditions (e.g. rainfall and air temperature), the spatio-temporal distribution of soil moisture is of importance to runoff generation. Therefore, the goal of WP6 is a combined use of soil moisture and meteorological data for surface runoff estimation. To achieve a better representation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of soil moisture in rainfall-runoff modelling, soil moisture will be measured locally and extrapolated with remote sensing data.
As a result, the relationship between flash flood volume and rainfall will be estimated and a flash flood warning system will be set up in cooperation with WP7.

Furthermore, the results of the surface runoff estimation contribute to the water budget estimation in WP2.

Dead Sea Basin Hydro-geological Modelling

In the Dead Sea Basin, groundwater recharge, besides fossil water, determines the available water resources. Therefore, the spatio-temporal quantification of groundwater recharge and flow in the Dead Sea Basin is essential for sustainable groundwater management.

WP6 has the goal to provide a 3D-hydrogeologic model of the entire Dead Sea Basin. Besides, the quantification of groundwater flow and recharge, water quality, and water-rock interactions will be assessed. On the one hand, the hydrogeologic model will integrate all available geological and structural information characterizing the aquifer and Graben fault system as well as the sediments of the Dead Sea Basin. On the other hand, data on isotope geochemistry and trace elements sampled from springs and groundwater wells in the region will be integrated into the model to shed light on water flow paths and water age.

Moreover, the results of the hydrogeologic model contribute to the water budget estimation in WP2.

Regional Weather and Climate, Atmospheric Hazards, and Health

The Dead Sea region and the ambient Eastern Mediterranean coastal zone provide a natural laboratory for studying atmospheric processes ranging from the smallest scale of cloud processes to regional weather and climate. The impact of those processes on the water availability in the region is of decisive importance. Especially, cloud and precipitation formation, the energy budget of soil and water surfaces, and flow dynamics are key processes for the water cycle and its variability. The role of aerosols in modifying clouds and precipitation and in developing the Dead Sea haze layer is one of the most intriguing questions. The haze influences visibility, solar radiation, and evaporation, and may even affect economy and health.

WP7 combines a long-term meteorological monitoring network, intensive special observation periods, and numerical modelling to:

• estimate Dead Sea evaporation which among others contributes to the Dead Sea water budget (WP2), triggers precipitation, and governs the intensity of Dead Sea haze;
• develop a flash flood warning system based on commercial cell phone systems, radar networks, and rain gauge observations in cooperation with WP6;
• quantify and characterize aerosols, as well as regional and local wind systems applying LIDAR and radar systems, as well as microwave remote sensing technology;
• simulate regional weather with COSMO and COSMO-ART to improve the process representation of evaporation, haze, and precipitation formation;
• investigate the impact of global warming and regional land use change on the water budget components (WP2) with high resolution regional climate simulations (COSMO-CLM);
• identify atmospheric factors contributing to better health at the Dead Sea to formulate treatment guidelines with respect to atmospheric exposure.

Contact:
Dr. Ulrich Corsmeier
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO)
Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1
76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen
Germany
ulrich corsmeier ∂does-not-exist.kit edu

Prof. Dr. Pinhas Alpert    
Tel Aviv University (TAU)
TAU Weather Research Center (TAU WeRC)
Tel Aviv
Israel
pinhas ∂does-not-exist.post tau ac il